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The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models have highlighted the disproportionate contribution of core group transmitters to the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Because the effectiveness of interventions varies with time, it has been suggested that epidemic phases should be considered in the design of prevention strategies. This study aimed to examine the impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of HIV interventions based on gonorrhoea screening and condom use, targeted to core groups. The results are based on a mathematical model of gonorrhoea and HIV transmission in a relatively slow spreading HIV epidemic using Cotonou (Benin) as an example. For epidemics with a low reproductive potential modest core group interventions can significantly reduce HIV incidence and prevalence. As the epidemic matures, effective interventions should also incorporate core and non-core populations. For epidemics with a high reproductive potential, core group interventions are necessary but not sufficient to have a rapid and large scale impact. A more general population approach is also needed early in the epidemic. Epidemic phases are also important in the evaluation of prevention strategies.

SUBMITTER: Boily MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1765829 | biostudies-literature | 2002 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models.

Boily M C MC Lowndes C C Alary M M

Sexually transmitted infections 20020401

Mathematical models have highlighted the disproportionate contribution of core group transmitters to the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Because the effectiveness of interventions varies with time, it has been suggested that epidemic phases should be considered in the design of prevention strategies. This study aimed to examine the impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of HIV interventions based on gonorrhoea screening and condom use, targeted to core groups. The results ar ...[more]

PMID: 12083451

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Project description:BackgroundThe core-group theory of sexually transmitted infections suggests that targeting prevention to high-risk groups (HRG) could be very effective. We aimed to quantify the contribution of heterosexual HRGs and the potential impact of focused interventions to HIV transmission in the wider community.MethodsWe systematically identified studies published between 1980 and 2011. Studies were included if they used dynamical models of heterosexual HIV transmission, incorporated behavioural heterogeneity in risk, and provided at least one of the following primary estimates in the wider community (a) the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections due to HRGs, or (b) the number per capita or fraction of HIV infections averted, or change in HIV prevalence/incidence due to focused interventions.FindingsOf 267 selected articles, 22 were included. Four studies measured the PAF, and 20 studies measured intervention impact across 265 scenarios. In low-prevalence epidemics (≤5% HIV prevalence), the estimated impact of sex-worker interventions in the absence of risk compensation included: 6-100% infections averted; 0.9-6.2 HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults; 11-94% and 4-47% relative reduction in prevalence and incidence respectively. In high-prevalence epidemics (>5% HIV prevalence), sex-worker interventions were estimated to avert 6.8-40% of HIV infections and up to 564 HIV infections per 100,000 adults, and reduce HIV prevalence and incidence by 13-27% and 2-14% respectively. In both types of epidemics, greater heterogeneity in HIV risk was associated with a larger impact on the fraction of HIV infections averted and relative reduction in HIV incidence.ConclusionFocused interventions, as estimated by mathematical models, have the potential to reduce HIV transmission in the wider community across low- and high-prevalence regions. However, considerable variability exists in estimated impact, suggesting that a targeted approach to HIV prevention should be tailored to local epidemiological context.

Dataset Information

The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models.

Publications

The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models.

Similar Datasets

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