How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers.

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models of transmission have become invaluable management tools in planning for the control of emerging infectious diseases. A key variable in such models is the reproductive number R. For new emerging infectious diseases, the value of the reproductive number can only be inferred indirectly from the observed exponential epidemic growth rate r. Such inference is ambiguous as several different equations exist that relate the reproductive number to the growth rate, and it is unclear which of these equations might apply to a new infection. Here, we show that these different equations differ only with respect to their assumed shape of the generation interval distribution. Therefore, the shape of the generation interval distribution determines which equation is appropriate for inferr

SUBMITTER: Wallinga J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1766383 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature