Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear.

Methods

Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya.

Results

In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in lar

SUBMITTER: Nagelkerke NJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1832203 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature