Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way.

ABSTRACT:

Aims/hypothesis

The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.

Materials and methods

Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976-1992), the NHANES III (1988-1994) and the NHANES 1999-2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999-2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2

SUBMITTER: Mainous AG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1849422 | biostudies-literature | 2007 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature