A threshold value for the time delay to TB diagnosis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In many communities where TB occurs at high incidence, the major force driving the epidemic is transmission. It is plausible that the typical long delay from the onset of infectious disease to diagnosis and commencement of treatment is almost certainly the major factor contributing to the high rate of transmission.

Methodology/principal findings

This study is confined to communities which are epidemiologically relatively isolated and which have low HIV incidence. The consequences of delays to diagnosis are analyzed and the existence of a threshold delay value is demonstrated. It is shown that unless a sufficient number of cases are detected before this threshold, the epidemic will escalate. The method used for the analysis avoids the standard computer integration

SUBMITTER: Uys PW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1942086 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature