Estimating individual and household reproduction numbers in an emerging epidemic.

ABSTRACT: Reproduction numbers, defined as averages of the number of people infected by a typical case, play a central role in tracking infectious disease outbreaks. The aim of this paper is to develop methods for estimating reproduction numbers which are simple enough that they could be applied with limited data or in real time during an outbreak. I present a new estimator for the individual reproduction number, which describes the state of the epidemic at a point in time rather than tracking individuals over time, and discuss some potential benefits. Then, to capture more of the detail that micro-simulations have shown is important in outbreak dynamics, I analyse a model of transmission within and between households, and develop a method to estimate the household reproduction number, defined as th

SUBMITTER: Fraser C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1950082 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature