Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Early warning systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics of infectious diseases. While climate-based EWS have been developed for malaria, no standard protocol to evaluate and compare EWS has been proposed. Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations.

Methodology/principal findings

In the present paper, an overview of the available linear and non-linear tools to predict seasonal time series of diseases is presented. Also, a general methodology to compare and evaluate models for prediction is presented and illustrated using American cutaneous leishmaniasis, a

SUBMITTER: Chaves LF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2041810 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature