Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Teglas E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2141924 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond.
Téglás Erno E Girotto Vittorio V Gonzalez Michel M Bonatti Luca L LL
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20071119 48
Rational agents should integrate probabilities in their predictions about uncertain future events. However, whether humans can do this, and if so, how this ability originates, are controversial issues. Here, we show that 12-month-olds have rational expectations about the future based on estimations of event possibilities, without the need of sampling past experiences. We also show that such natural expectations influence preschoolers' reaction times, while frequencies modify motor responses, but ...[more]
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