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Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

ABSTRACT: We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing the serological test data. The immune response of a host involves the production of antibodies in response to an antigen. Our analysis shows that great gerbils recovered from a plague infection are more likely to keep their antibodies to plague and survive throughout the summer-to-winter season than throughout the winter-to-summer season. Provided the seasonal mortality rates are similar (which seems to be the case based on a mortality analysis with abundance data), our finding indicates that the immune function of the sampled great gerbils is seasonal.

SUBMITTER: Park S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2219429 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

Park Siyun S Chan Kung-Sik KS Viljugrein Hildegunn H Nekrassova Larissa L Suleimenov Bakhtiyar B Ageyev Vladimir S VS Klassovskiy Nikolay L NL Pole Sergey B SB Chr Stenseth Nils N

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20070201 12

We propose a new stochastic framework for analysing the dynamics of the immunity response of wildlife hosts against a disease-causing agent. Our study is motivated by the need to analyse the monitoring time-series data covering the period from 1975 to 1995 on bacteriological and serological tests-samples from great gerbils being the main host of Yersinia pestis in Kazakhstan. Based on a four-state continuous-time Markov chain, we derive a generalized nonlinear mixed-effect model for analysing th ...[more]

PMID: 17254979

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Project description:AimThe spatial structure of a population can strongly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases, yet rarely is the underlying structure quantified. A case in point is plague, an infectious zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Plague dynamics within the Central Asian desert plague focus have been extensively modelled in recent years, but always with strong uniformity assumptions about the distribution of its primary reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). Yet, while clustering of this species' burrows due to social or ecological processes could have potentially significant effects on model outcomes, there is currently nothing known about the spatial distribution of inhabited burrows. Here, we address this knowledge gap by describing key aspects of the spatial patterns of great gerbil burrows in Kazakhstan.LocationKazakhstan.MethodsBurrows were classified as either occupied or empty in 98 squares of four different sizes: 200 m (side length), 250 m, 500 m and 590-1020 m. We used Ripley's K statistic to determine whether and at what scale there was clustering of occupied burrows, and semi-variograms to quantify spatial patterns in occupied burrows at scales of 250 m to 9 km.ResultsSignificant spatial clustering of occupied burrows occurred in 25% and 75% of squares of 500 m and 590-1020 m, respectively, but not in smaller squares. In clustered squares, the clustering criterion peaked around 250 m. Semi-variograms showed that burrow density was auto-correlated up to a distance of 7 km and occupied density up to 2.5 km.Main conclusionsThese results demonstrate that there is statistically significant spatial clustering of occupied burrows and that the uniformity assumptions of previous plague models should be reconsidered to assess its significance for plague transmission. This field evidence will allow for more realistic approaches to disease ecology models for both this system and for other structured host populations.

Project description:The nest flea index of Meriones unguiculatus is a critical indicator for the prevention and control of plague, which can be used not only to detect the spatial and temporal distributions of Meriones unguiculatus, but also to reveal its cluster rule. This research detected the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the plague natural foci of Mongolian gerbils by body flea index from 2005 to 2014, in order to predict plague outbreaks.Global spatial autocorrelation was used to describe the entire spatial distribution pattern of the body flea index in the natural plague foci of typical Chinese Mongolian gerbils. Cluster and outlier analysis and hot spot analysis were also used to detect the intensity of clusters based on geographic information system methods. The quantity of M. unguiculatus nest fleas in the sentinel surveillance sites from 2005 to 2014 and host density data of the study area from 2005 to 2010 used in this study were provided by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The epidemic focus regions of the Mongolian gerbils remain the same as the hot spot regions relating to the body flea index. High clustering areas possess a similar pattern as the distribution pattern of the body flea index indicating that the transmission risk of plague is relatively high. In terms of time series, the area of the epidemic focus gradually increased from 2005 to 2007, declined rapidly in 2008 and 2009, and then decreased slowly and began trending towards stability from 2009 to 2014. For the spatial change, the epidemic focus regions began moving northward from the southwest epidemic focus of the Mongolian gerbils from 2005 to 2007, and then moved from north to south in 2007 and 2008.The body flea index of Chinese gerbil foci reveals significant spatial and temporal aggregation characteristics through the employing of spatial autocorrelation. The diversity of temporary and spatial distribution is mainly affected by seasonal variation, the human activity and natural factors.

Project description:BackgroundThe great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus), whose ectoparasitic fleas significantly influence the transmission and prevalence of plague, was the dominant rodent species in the Junggar Basin in Northwestern China. However, the distribution pattern of fleas parasitizing the great gerbils and whether that pattern affected the intensity of plague prevalence in different regions remains unclear.MethodsA total of 17,780 fleas were collected from 2258 great gerbils throughout 90 investigations. This study focused on analyzing the rate of flea infestation and the flea indices of species that parasitized the great gerbils. The aggregation patterns of fleas parasitizing the great gerbils were measured using the parameter b of Taylor's power law, and the differences in the aggregation index of plague epidemic areas were compared.ResultsWe observed an aggregated distribution of ectoparasitic fleas in the great gerbils. The aggregation degree of combined fleas was higher (P > 0.05) in the eastern area of the Junggar Basin than in the western area. The primary species of ectoparasitic fleas of the great gerbils were Xenopsylla skrjabini, Xenopsylla minax, Xenopsylla hirtipes, and Nosopsyllus laeviceps laiveceps. X. skrjabini exhibited the highest (P < 0.01) degree of aggregation in the eastern zone (III), with an aggregation index of 1.61. In addition, in the middle zone (II), the aggregation index of X. minax and X. hirtipes reached their peak, with values of 1.53 and 1.56, respectively. Conversely, the degree of aggregation of N. laeviceps was more pronounced in the eastern zone than in the western zone of the Junggar Basin. Notably, the aggregation degree of the combined fleas of the great gerbils during the low-intensity plague epidemic period, with an index of 1.93, was significantly higher (P < 0.001) than during the high-intensity epidemic period, with an index of 1.50.ConclusionsFleas exhibited an aggregated distribution within the great gerbil population. The levels of flea aggregation varied across zones characterized by differing intensities of plague epidemics. In addition, the degree of flea aggregation was significantly correlated with the intensity of plague prevalence.

Dataset Information

Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

Publications

Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a disease-causing agent: plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example.

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