Stochastic amplification in epidemics.

ABSTRACT: The role of stochasticity and its interplay with nonlinearity are central current issues in studies of the complex population patterns observed in nature, including the pronounced oscillations of wildlife and infectious diseases. The dynamics of childhood diseases have provided influential case studies to develop and test mathematical models with practical application to epidemiology, but are also of general relevance to the central question of whether simple nonlinear systems can explain and predict the complex temporal and spatial patterns observed in nature outside laboratory conditions. Here, we present a stochastic theory for the major dynamical transitions in epidemics from regular to irregular cycles, which relies on the discrete nature of disease transmission and low spatial coupli

SUBMITTER: Alonso D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2373404 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature