Residual delay maps unveil global patterns of atmospheric nonlinearity and produce improved local forecasts.

ABSTRACT: We use residual-delay maps of observational field data for barometric pressure to demonstrate the structure of latitudinal gradients in nonlinearity in the atmosphere. Nonlinearity is weak and largely lacking in tropical and subtropical sites and increases rapidly into the temperate regions where the time series also appear to be much noisier. The degree of nonlinearity closely follows the meridional variation of midlatitude storm track frequency. We extract the specific functional form of this nonlinearity, a V shape in the lagged residuals that appears to be a basic feature of midlatitude synoptic weather systems associated with frontal passages. We present evidence that this form arises from the relative time scales of high-pressure versus low-pressure events. Finally, we show that this

SUBMITTER: Sugihara G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC24416 | biostudies-literature | 1999 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature