Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever.

ABSTRACT: Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a potentially fatal manifestation of an infection with the mosquito-borne dengue virus. Because of the social and economic costs of DHF, many countries in Asia and South America have initiated public health measures aimed at vector control. Despite these measures, DHF incidence rates do not appear to be declining. The effectiveness of vector control in reducing dengue transmissibility has thereby been questioned. Here, we revisit this conclusion using epidemiological data from Thailand. We first show, with age incidence data, that dengue transmission rates have fallen since 1981; surprisingly, however, these declines are not associated with decreases in DHF incidence. Instead, district-level analyses indicate a nonmonotonic relationship between the basic r

SUBMITTER: Nagao Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2538904 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature