The true value of HbA1c as a predictor of diabetic complications: simulations of HbA1c variables.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

The updated mean HbA1c has been used in risk estimates of diabetic complications, but it does not take into account the temporal relationship between HbA1c and diabetic complications. We studied whether the updated mean HbA1c underestimated the risk of diabetic complications.

Method

Continuous HbA1c curves for 10,000 hypothetical diabetes patients were simulated over an average of 7 years. Simulations were based on HbA1c values encountered in clinical practice. We assumed that each short time interval of the continuous HbA1c curves had a long-lasting effect on diabetic complications, as evidenced by earlier studies. We tested several different HbA1c variables including various profiles, e.g. different duration, of such a long-lasting effect. The predictive power of these

SUBMITTER: Lind M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2636883 | biostudies-literature | 2009

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature