The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999-2010.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent, dramatic increases in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China can be mostly explained by adverse changes in major cardiovascular risk factors. Our study aimed to assess the potential impact of subsequent changes in risk factors and population ageing on CHD deaths in Beijing between 1999 and 2010.

Methods

The previously validated IMPACT model was used to estimate the CHD deaths expected in 2010, with treatment uptakes being held constant at levels measured in 1999, comparing three scenarios: a) taking into account the ageing of the population but assuming no further changes in major risk factor levels from 1999 or, b) if recent risk factor trends continued until 2010 or, c) if there was a 0.5% annual reduction in each risk factor.

Results

Pop

SUBMITTER: Cheng J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2637858 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature