Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

ABSTRACT: Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate inclu

SUBMITTER: Jenouvrier S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2644125 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature