Hedging against antiviral resistance during the next influenza pandemic using small stockpiles of an alternative chemotherapy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The effectiveness of single-drug antiviral interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality during the next influenza pandemic will be substantially weakened if transmissible strains emerge which are resistant to the stockpiled antiviral drugs. We developed a mathematical model to test the hypothesis that a small stockpile of a secondary antiviral drug could be used to mitigate the adverse consequences of the emergence of resistant strains.

Methods and findings

We used a multistrain stochastic transmission model of influenza to show that the spread of antiviral resistance can be significantly reduced by deploying a small stockpile (1% population coverage) of a secondary drug during the early phase of local epidemics. We considered two strategies for the use of the

SUBMITTER: Wu JT 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2680070 | biostudies-literature | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature