Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change.

ABSTRACT: Avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" requires stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we present an inverse approach to coupled climate-carbon cycle modeling, which allows us to estimate the probability that any given level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will exceed specified long-term global mean temperature targets for "dangerous anthropogenic interference," taking into consideration uncertainties in climate sensitivity and the carbon cycle response to climate change. We show that to stabilize global mean temperature increase at 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels with a probability of at least 0.66, cumulative CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2500 must not exceed a median e

SUBMITTER: Zickfeld K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2752604 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature