Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control.

ABSTRACT: Spatial heterogeneities and spatial separation of hosts are often seen as key factors when developing accurate predictive models of the spread of pathogens. The question we address in this paper is how coarse the resolution of the spatial data can be for a model to be a useful tool for informing control policies. We examine this problem using the specific case of foot-and-mouth disease spreading between farms using the formulation developed during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. We show that, if our model is carefully parameterized to match epidemic behavior, then using aggregate county-scale data from the United States is sufficient to closely determine optimal control measures (specifically ring culling). This result also holds when the approach is extended to theoretical distri

SUBMITTER: Tildesley MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2824282 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature