The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza.

ABSTRACT:

Background

As Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza spreads around the globe, it strikes school-age children more often than adults. Although there is some evidence of pre-existing immunity among older adults, this alone may not explain the significant gap in age-specific infection rates.

Methods and findings

Based on a retrospective analysis of pandemic strains of influenza from the last century, we show that school-age children typically experience the highest attack rates in primarily naive populations, with the burden shifting to adults during the subsequent season. Using a parsimonious network-based mathematical model which incorporates the changing distribution of contacts in the susceptible population, we demonstrate that new pandemic strains of influenza are expected to shi

SUBMITTER: Bansal S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2829076 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature