High GUD incidence in the early 20 century created a particularly permissive time window for the origin and initial spread of epidemic HIV strains.

ABSTRACT: The processes that permitted a few SIV strains to emerge epidemically as HIV groups remain elusive. Paradigmatic theories propose factors that may have facilitated adaptation to the human host (e.g., unsafe injections), none of which provide a coherent explanation for the timing, geographical origin, and scarcity of epidemic HIV strains. Our updated molecular clock analyses established relatively narrow time intervals (roughly 1880-1940) for major SIV transfers to humans. Factors that could favor HIV emergence in this time frame may have been genital ulcer disease (GUD), resulting in high HIV-1 transmissibility (4-43%), largely exceeding parenteral transmissibility; lack of male circumcision increasing male HIV infection risk; and gender-skewed city growth increasing sexual promiscuity. We

SUBMITTER: de Sousa JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2848574 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature