Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory.

ABSTRACT: Many species are experiencing sustained environmental change mainly due to human activities. The unusual rate and extent of anthropogenic alterations of the environment may exceed the capacity of developmental, genetic, and demographic mechanisms that populations have evolved to deal with environmental change. To begin to understand the limits to population persistence, we present a simple evolutionary model for the critical rate of environmental change beyond which a population must decline and go extinct. We use this model to highlight the major determinants of extinction risk in a changing environment, and identify research needs for improved predictions based on projected changes in environmental variables. Two key parameters relating the environment to population biology have not yet

SUBMITTER: Chevin LM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2864732 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature