Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence.

Methods

We used a population-based model of intestinal-type gastric cancer to estimate gastric cancer incidence between 1985 and 2050. Disease and risk factor data in the model were from community-based epidemiological studies and national prevalence surveys.

Results

Between 1985 and 2005, age-standardized gastric cancer incidence among Chinese men declined from 30.8 to 27.2 per 100,000 (12%); trends in H. pylori an

SUBMITTER: Yeh JM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2904855 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature