Predictive power of air travel and socio-economic data for early pandemic spread.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.

Methodology/principal findings

Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a

SUBMITTER: Hosseini P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2939898 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature