Heightened vulnerability to MDR-TB epidemics after controlling drug-susceptible TB.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Prior infection with one strain TB has been linked with diminished likelihood of re-infection by a new strain. This paper attempts to determine the role of declining prevalence of drug-susceptible TB in enabling future epidemics of MDR-TB.

Methods

A computer simulation of MDR-TB epidemics was developed using an agent-based model platform programmed in NetLogo (See http://mdr.tbtools.org/). Eighty-one scenarios were created, varying levels of treatment quality, diagnostic accuracy, microbial fitness cost, and the degree of immunogenicity elicited by drug-susceptible TB. Outcome measures were the number of independent MDR-TB cases per trial and the proportion of trials resulting in MDR-TB epidemics for a 500 year period after drug therapy for TB is introduced.

Re

SUBMITTER: Bishai JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2943899 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature