Insights into the evolution and emergence of a novel infectious disease.

ABSTRACT: Many zoonotic, novel infectious diseases in humans appear as sporadic infections with spatially and temporally restricted outbreaks, as seen with influenza A(H5N1). Adaptation is often a key factor for successfully establishing sustained human-to-human transmission. Here we use simple mathematical models to describe different adaptation scenarios with particular reference to spatial heterogeneity within the human population. We present analytical expressions for the probability of emergence per introduction, as well as the waiting time to a successful emergence event. Furthermore, we derive general analytical results for the statistical properties of emergence events, including the probability distribution of outbreak sizes. We compare our analytical results with a stochastic model, which

SUBMITTER: Kubiak RJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2947978 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature