Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/principal findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a pr

SUBMITTER: Devenish Nelson ES 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2963614 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature