Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities.

Methods

We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method.

Results

In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will

SUBMITTER: Barber P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2987757 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature