Dataset Information

Detecting bioterror attacks by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis.

ABSTRACT: To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack would likely exhibit symptoms before the attack was detected through blood donor screening. For example, an attack infecting 100 persons with a noncontagious agent such as Bacillus anthracis would only have a 26% chance of being detected within 25 days; yet, at an assumed additional charge of $10 per test, donor screening would cost $139 million per year. Furthermore, even if screening tests were 99.99% specific, 1,390 false-positive results would occur each year. Therefore, screening blood donors for bioterror agents should not be used to detect a bioterror attack.

SUBMITTER: Kaplan EH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3020608 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Detecting bioterror attacks by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis.

Kaplan Edward H EH

Emerging infectious diseases 20030801 8

To assess whether screening blood donors could provide early warning of a bioterror attack, we combined stochastic models of blood donation and the workings of blood tests with an epidemic model to derive the probability distribution of the time to detect an attack under assumptions favorable to blood donor screening. Comparing the attack detection delay to the incubation times of the most feared bioterror agents shows that even under such optimistic conditions, victims of a bioterror attack wou ...[more]

PMID: 12967486

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Project description:Using sequential immunoassays for the screening of blood donors is well described for viral serology testing but not for the screening of syphilis. In this study, we report the evaluation results and 2-year sequential testing data using two highly sensitive automated serology assays, the Alinity s Syphilis chemiluminescent immunoassay for screening, with all repeatedly reactive samples then tested on the Elecsys Syphilis electrochemiluminescence immunoassay. We screened 1,767,782 blood donor samples between 7 July 2021 and 6 July 2023 and found the Alinity false-positive rate to be low at 0.08% (1,456/1,767,782). The common false-positive rate between the two assays was also low (3.83%, 58/1,514). Concordantly reactive samples were further tested using a Treponema pallidum particle agglutination test, a rapid plasma reagin test, and a fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption test. There were 262/1,376 concordantly reactive Alinity and Elecsys blood donor samples with reactivity on one or more of the confirmatory tests. A total of 26/1,376 donors had a current syphilis infection, 152/1,376 reported a past history of syphilis and had been treated, and 84/1,376 did not report a past history of syphilis. We suggest that future studies could explore the use of sequential immunoassays to aid in the serodiagnosis for syphilis.ImportanceThe serodiagnosis for syphilis usually follows two methodologies-a "traditional" algorithm using a non-treponemal test followed by confirmation using a treponemal test, or a "reverse" algorithm using a treponemal test followed by a non-treponemal test. There are limited reports in the literature of using a modified reverse algorithm (treponemal test followed by a second treponemal test), and to the best of knowledge, there are currently no published articles using two highly sensitive automated immunoassays to aid the serodiagnosis of syphilis. In addition, the Treponema pallidum particle agglutination (TPPA) assay is commonly used as a confirmatory test for the diagnosis of syphilis. With the withdrawal of the TPPA assay from Australia and presumably from the global market also, alternative testing algorithms are now required. This study provides proof of concept for using sequential immunoassays in the diagnosis of syphilis.

Dataset Information

Detecting bioterror attacks by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis.

Publications

Detecting bioterror attacks by screening blood donors: a best-case analysis.

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