Adapting North American wheat production to climatic challenges, 1839-2009.

ABSTRACT: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that temperatures in the major grain-growing areas of North America will rise by 3-4 °C by 2100. Such abrupt changes will create major challenges, significantly altering the area suitable for wheat. The historical record offers insight into the capability of agriculture to adapt to climatic challenges. Using a new county-level dataset on wheat production and climate norms, we show that during the 19th and 20th centuries North American grain farmers pushed wheat production into environments once considered too arid, too variable, and too harsh to cultivate. As summary measures, the median annual precipitation norm of the 2007 distribution of North American wheat production was one-half that of the 1839 distribution, and the median annua

SUBMITTER: Olmstead AL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3021086 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature