Diagnosis and antiviral intervention strategies for mitigating an influenza epidemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many countries have amassed antiviral stockpiles for pandemic preparedness. Despite extensive trial data and modelling studies, it remains unclear how to make optimal use of antiviral stockpiles within the constraints of healthcare infrastructure. Modelling studies informed recommendations for liberal antiviral distribution in the pandemic phase, primarily to prevent infection, but failed to account for logistical constraints clearly evident during the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks. Here we identify optimal delivery strategies for antiviral interventions accounting for logistical constraints, and so determine how to improve a strategy's impact.

Methods and findings

We extend an existing SEIR model to incorporate finite diagnostic and antiviral distribution capacities. We ev

SUBMITTER: Moss R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3033893 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature