The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics in Italy was characterized by a notable pattern: as it emerged from the analysis of influenza-like illness data, after an initial period (September-mid-October 2009) characterized by a slow exponential increase in the weekly incidence, a sudden and sharp increase of the growth rate was observed by mid-October. The aim here is to understand whether spontaneous behavioral changes in the population could be responsible for such a pattern of epidemic spread.

Methodology/principal findings

In order to face this issue, a mathematical model of influenza transmission, accounting for spontaneous behavioral changes driven by cost/benefit considerations on the perceived risk of infection, is proposed and validated against empirical e

SUBMITTER: Poletti P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3034726 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature