Does prevalence matter to physicians in estimating post-test probability of disease? A randomized trial.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The probability of a disease following a diagnostic test depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the test, but also on the prevalence of the disease in the population of interest (or pre-test probability). How physicians use this information is not well known.

Objective

To assess whether physicians correctly estimate post-test probability according to various levels of prevalence and explore this skill across respondent groups.

Design

Randomized trial.

Participants

Population-based sample of 1,361 physicians of all clinical specialties.

Intervention

We described a scenario of a highly accurate screening test (sensitivity 99% and specificity 99%) in which we randomly manipulated the prevalence of the disease (1%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 95%, or no

SUBMITTER: Agoritsas T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3055966 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature