Can antiviral drugs contain pandemic influenza transmission?

ABSTRACT: Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission.Simulations using a standard transmission model that allows for infected arrivals and delayed vaccination show that attempts to contain transmission require relatively few antiviral doses. In contrast, persistent use of antiviral drugs when the reproduction number remains above 1 use very many doses and are unlikely to reduce the eventual attack rate appreciably unless the stockpile is very large. A second model, in which the community has a household structure, shows that the effectiveness of a strategy of dispensing antiviral drugs to infected househ

SUBMITTER: Becker NG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3065466 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature