Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe.

ABSTRACT: Cholera remains an important global cause of morbidity and mortality, capable of causing periodic epidemic disease. Beginning in August 2008, a major cholera epidemic occurred in Zimbabwe, with 98,585 reported cases and 4,287 deaths. The dynamics of such outbreaks, particularly in nonestuarine regions, are not well understood. We explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of cholera and in assessing the magnitude of interventions necessary to control epidemic disease. Weekly data on reported cholera cases were obtained from the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Welfare (MoHCW) for the period from November 13, 2008 to July 31, 2009. A mathematical model was formulated and fitted to cumulative cholera cases to estimate the basic reproductive number

SUBMITTER: Mukandavire Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3102413 | biostudies-literature | 2011 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature