Prediction of dengue incidence using search query surveillance.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The use of internet search data has been demonstrated to be effective at predicting influenza incidence. This approach may be more successful for dengue which has large variation in annual incidence and a more distinctive clinical presentation and mode of transmission.

Methods

We gathered freely-available dengue incidence data from Singapore (weekly incidence, 2004-2011) and Bangkok (monthly incidence, 2004-2011). Internet search data for the same period were downloaded from Google Insights for Search. Search terms were chosen to reflect three categories of dengue-related search: nomenclature, signs/symptoms, and treatment. We compared three models to predict incidence: a step-down linear regression, generalized boosted regression, and negative binomial regression

SUBMITTER: Althouse BM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3149016 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature