Projected effects of tobacco smoking on worldwide tuberculosis control: mathematical modelling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Almost 20% of people smoke tobacco worldwide--a percentage projected to rise in many poor countries. Smoking has been linked to increased individual risk of tuberculosis infection and mortality, but it remains unclear how these risks affect population-wide tuberculosis rates.

Design

We constructed a state transition, compartmental, mathematical model of tuberculosis epidemics to estimate the impact of alternative future smoking trends on tuberculosis control. We projected tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality in each World Health Organization region from 2010 to 2050, and incorporated changing trends in smoking, case detection, treatment success, and HIV prevalence.

Results

The model predicted that smoking would produce an excess of 18 million t

SUBMITTER: Basu S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3186817 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature