Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia.

ABSTRACT: Disease modelling is one approach for providing new insights into wildlife disease epidemiology. This paper describes a spatio-temporal, stochastic, susceptible- exposed-infected-recovered process model that simulates the potential spread of classical swine fever through a documented, large and free living wild pig population following a simulated incursion. The study area (300 000 km2) was in northern Australia. Published data on wild pig ecology from Australia, and international Classical Swine Fever data was used to parameterise the model. Sensitivity analyses revealed that herd density (best estimate 1-3 pigs km-2), daily herd movement distances (best estimate approximately 1 km), probability of infection transmission between herds (best estimate 0.75) and disease related herd mortalit

SUBMITTER: Cowled BD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3311561 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature