Dataset Information

Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary.

ABSTRACT: Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years.

SUBMITTER: Zammit-Mangion A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3411944 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary.

Zammit-Mangion Andrew A Dewar Michael M Kadirkamanathan Visakan V Sanguinetti Guido G

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20120716 31

Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volat ...[more]

PMID: 22802667

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Dataset Information

Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary.

Publications

Point process modelling of the Afghan War Diary.

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