Visualizing results from infection transmission models: a case against "confidence intervals".

ABSTRACT: Stochastic transmission models are highly important in infectious disease epidemiology. The quantity of data produced by these models is challenging to display and communicate. A common approach is to display the model results in the familiar form of a mean or median and 95% interval, plotted over time. This approach has drawbacks, however, including the potential for ambiguity and misinterpretation of model results. Instead, we propose 2 alternative approaches for visualizing results from stochastic models. These proposed approaches convey the information provided by the median and 95% interval, as well as information about unexpected outcomes that may be of particular interest for stochastic epidemic models.

SUBMITTER: Lofgren ET 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3415573 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature