Projecting HIV transmission in Japan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Little is known about the epidemiology of HIV in Japan, though newly-identified cases amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) show an increasing trend. Predictions of future trends in the HIV epidemic are essential to identify suitable interventions.

Methods

A deterministic, compartmental model was developed that incorporated risk groups, disease stages, and treatment and testing parameters. This model was calibrated against current figures on new infections and run over 30 years to identify trends in prevalence amongst MSM, low-risk men and low-risk women. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate sensitivity ranges for all outcomes.

Results

Without new interventions amongst MSM in Japan, HIV prevalence will climb from its current rate of 2.1%

SUBMITTER: Gilmour S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3423344 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature