Bayesian probabilistic population projections for all countries.

ABSTRACT: Projections of countries' future populations, broken down by age and sex, are widely used for planning and research. They are mostly done deterministically, but there is a widespread need for probabilistic projections. We propose a bayesian method for probabilistic population projections for all countries. The total fertility rate and female and male life expectancies at birth are projected probabilistically using bayesian hierarchical models estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo using United Nations population data for all countries. These are then converted to age-specific rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of any population quantity of interest. The method is illustrated for five countries of different demographic stages,

SUBMITTER: Raftery AE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3435191 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature