Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

ABSTRACT:

Background

It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic.

Methods and find

SUBMITTER: Oki M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3483158 | biostudies-literature | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature