The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications?

Methods

We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled.

Results

For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, how

SUBMITTER: Reichert T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3554498 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature