Pneumococcal transmission and disease in silico: a microsimulation model of the indirect effects of vaccination.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine's efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was cons

SUBMITTER: Nurhonen M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3566073 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature