Increased HIV incidence in men who have sex with men despite high levels of ART-induced viral suppression: analysis of an extensively documented epidemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ARTcoverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear.

Methods

We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour.

Results

HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990-1997, 0.45/100 py 1998-2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not

SUBMITTER: Phillips AN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3574102 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature