Projecting Thailand physician supplies between 2012 and 2030: application of cohort approaches.

ABSTRACT:

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Background

This study forecasts physician supply between 2012 and 2030 using cohort analysis, based on future production capacity and losses from the profession, and assesses if, and by when, the projected numbers of physicians would meet the targets of one doctor per 1,500 population, as proposed by the 7th National Conference on Medical Education in 2001, and one per 1,800, proposed by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) in 2004.

Methods

We estimated the annual loss rate that best reflected the dynamics of existing practising doctors, then applied this rate to the existing physicians, plus the newly licensed physicians flowing into the pool over the next two decades (from 2012 to 2030). Finally, the remaining practising physicians, after adjustment for

SUBMITTER: Suphanchaimat R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3575403 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature