A time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.

ABSTRACT: In this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help e

SUBMITTER: Estrada F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3610752 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature