Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability.

ABSTRACT: The future bioenergy crop potential depends on (1) changes in the food system (food demand, agricultural technology), (2) political stability and investment security, (3) biodiversity conservation, (4) avoidance of long carbon payback times from deforestation, and (5) energy crop yields. Using a biophysical biomass-balance model, we analyze how these factors affect global primary bioenergy potentials in 2050. The model calculates biomass supply and demand balances for eleven world regions, eleven food categories, seven food crop types and two livestock categories, integrating agricultural forecasts and scenarios with a consistent global land use and NPP database. The TREND scenario results in a global primary bioenergy potential of 77 EJ/yr, alternative assumptions on food-system changes r

SUBMITTER: Erb KH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3617899 | biostudies-literature | 2012 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature