Uncertainty surrounding projections of the long-term impact of ivermectin treatment on human onchocerciasis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent studies in Mali, Nigeria, and Senegal have indicated that annual (or biannual) ivermectin distribution may lead to local elimination of human onchocerciasis in certain African foci. Modelling-based projections have been used to estimate the required duration of ivermectin distribution to reach elimination. A crucial assumption has been that microfilarial production by Onchocerca volvulus is reduced irreversibly by 30-35% with each (annual) ivermectin round. However, other modelling-based analyses suggest that ivermectin may not have such a cumulative effect. Uncertainty in this (biological) and other (programmatic) assumptions would affect projected outcomes of long-term ivermectin treatment.

Methodology/principal findings

We modify a deterministic age- and

SUBMITTER: Turner HC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3636241 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature