Age-specific contacts and travel patterns in the spatial spread of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most frequently driving community outbreaks.

Methods

We introduce a multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes to analytically investigate the role of a heterogeneously mixing population and its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We inform the model with demographic data, contact data and travel statistics of Europe and Mexico, and calibrate it to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic early outbreak. We allow for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions of invasion un

SUBMITTER: Apolloni A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3644502 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature